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The world has become well versed in the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the world’s energy flows, but attention is increasingly turning to its vital role in another market—the fertiliser on which harvests depend. A third of the global trade in raw materials for fertiliser passes through this maritime choke point, which is also the route for 20% of shipments of natural gas required to make it. The waterway’s near-total shipping blockade is a ‘food security timebomb’, the head of the International Rescue Committee, David Miliband, said this week, adding: ‘The window to avert a massive global hunger crisis is rapidly closing.’ Fertiliser production in the Gulf The Gulf is home to some of the world’s largest fertiliser factory sites. International organisations warn a prolonged transport shutdown could disrupt production and increase costs. About 16 million tonnes of fertilisers were transported by sea from the region in 2024, according to UNCTAD. Iran, after Russia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, is the fourth-largest global exporter of urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser. The Middle East also supplies about 45% of the global trade in sulphur, a key raw material for fertiliser manufacture. Since Iran began threatening attacks on shipping, only a trickle of vessels carrying ammonia, nitrogen, and sulphur—vital ingredients in synthetic fertiliser—are transiting the strait. The Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), the world’s largest single urea export site, has been offline for nearly a month due to Iranian strikes, leaving Qatar with no alternative route for exporting urea. Doha also relies on Hormuz for food imports for itself and the UAE. Roughly half of global food production depends on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser. Without it, crop yields would plummet, pushing up prices of staples like bread, rice, potatoes, and pasta, and increasing animal feed costs. Farmers face a ‘double shock’ from surging fertiliser and fuel prices, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. Prices have already risen since the conflict began, echoing past crises like 2022’s post-Ukraine invasion surge and the 2008 global fertiliser crisis. Egyptian urea prices, a benchmark, have risen by over 60%, reaching $780 per tonne. While fertiliser prices haven’t yet matched 2022 levels, analysts warn they remain under pressure. The fertiliser market is paralysed, waiting for the conflict to end. Supply disruptions have been severe, but buyers are delaying purchases in hopes of price drops post-conflict. If Hormuz remains closed, fertiliser plants could max out storage, curtailing production. US sanctions relief for Belarusian potash producers and Russian oil suspensions won’t boost global supplies, as Russia continues exporting fertiliser to non-European markets. The impact varies by country’s reliance on Gulf fertiliser imports. European and North American farmers had already secured spring planting fertiliser, but Australia, India, and its neighbours face heightened pressure. India, the world’s second-largest fertiliser user, depends on Gulf imports for raw materials and finished products. Its subsidised fertiliser could be disrupted, raising food prices. Least developed economies, like those in Africa and South Asia, are most vulnerable to price shocks, straining household budgets and public finances. While global food prices haven’t risen yet, long-term supply disruptions could be severe if the war’s trade disruptions persist.