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In brief, about 47% of Bitcoin is sitting at a loss, according to data gathered from CEX.io Research. This includes more than 30% of the Bitcoin held by long-term holders, the highest mark since 2023. Bitcoin is roughly even on the day but has fallen more than 47% from its all-time high. Holders of around 9.4 million Bitcoin, or approximately 47% of the total circulating supply, are sitting on unrealized or paper losses, worth over $304 billion. The report states that long-term holders are now selling at their deepest losses in three years, signaling a sharp deterioration in confidence. The broader context makes this more concerning. Bitcoin’s price has been drifting slightly higher over recent weeks, but the share of long-term holders sitting in profit has been shrinking. Bitcoin is roughly flat in the last 24 hours, trading around $66,567, but has fallen around 6% in the last week due to escalating tensions in Iran. This shift has led Bitcoin to a shaky position. CEX.io’s Bitcoin Impact Index, which measures Bitcoin holders' stress levels, has flashed to 'high impact,' indicating significant selling pressure. The report notes that this divergence between price action and on-chain conviction has historically been a warning sign, similar to moves in mid-2018 and mid-2022. Another 25% drop would push Bitcoin below $50,000 for the first time since February 2024. Currently, Bitcoin is about 47% off its all-time high of $126,080. The research suggests this setup resembles late January 2024, which preceded a steep drop from the mid-$90,000s to low $60,000s in early February. Unlike previous cycles, holders are not yet rushing Bitcoin to exchanges to sell, which has prevented further declines. If this trend continues, prices could stabilize rather than fall further. Cautious analysis aligns with recent statements by VanEck, indicating unusually strong demand for downside protection on Bitcoin. Earlier, CryptoQuant suggested BTC’s real bear market bottom price would be closer to $55,000, while Standard Chartered predicted it would hit $50,000 before rebounding toward $100,000.